деньги вечером, стулья утром
14:15 | 10-01-2011 | Economics, Facebook | 2 Comments
замечательная статья Дугласа Рашкоффа о приближающемся конце Facebook:
In fact, as I read the situation, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Facebook. These aren’t the symptoms of a company that is winning, but one that is cashing out.
параллели и в самом деле налицо:
Indeed, 11 years ago this week, when AOL announced its $350 billion merger with Time Warner, I was asked to write an OpEd for the New York Times explaining what the deal between old and new media companies really meant. I said that AOL was cashing in its over-valued dotcom stock in order to purchase a stake in a “real” media company with movie studios, theme parks and even cable. In short, the deal meant AOL knew their reign was over.
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Likewise, Rupert Murdoch’s 2005 purchase of MySpace for $580 million coincided pretty much exactly with the website’s peak of popularity. People blamed corporate ownership for the social network’s demise, but the cycle had already begun.
Now, it’s Facebook’s turn.
как бы там ни было на самом деле, но фундамент любой социальности он видит предельно ясно:
Yet social media is itself as temporary as any social gathering, nightclub or party. It’s the people that matter, not the venue. So when the trend leaders of one social niche or another decide the place everyone is socializing has lost its luster or, more important, its exclusivity, they move on to the next one, taking their followers with them. (Facebook’s successor will no doubt provide an easy “migration utility” through which you can bring all your so-called friends with you, if you even want to.)
We will move on, just as we did from the chat rooms of AOL, without even looking back. When the place is as ethereal as a website, our allegiance is much more abstract than it is to a local pub or gym. We don’t live there, we don’t know the owner, and we are all the more ready to be incensed by the latest change to a privacy policy, or to learn that every one of our social connections has been sold to the highest corporate bidder.
туда же, в общем-то, смотрят и прекрасные slashdotters[1]:
In my network, posts are getting sparser and sparser. Just like the end of Freindser, or Orkut, or any other social network system. People get bored and stop. It the infusion of new users that drives their survival, and Facebook my be nearing the end of people willing to sign up.
и дальше:
Communities of any kind, be it RL cliques, IRC channels or social networks, tend to dry up with regard to interesting new content once there is no influx of new blood. Then users one by one, beginning with the influentiel trend setters, like queen bees, tend to wander around in search for a more interesting, cool new beehive. If, no, _when_ they find one, all the lower status worker bees will naturally follow, since the value of the old place drops significantly without the social leaders.
натурально, так оно и есть: пчелы слетаются на мед, но где окажутся эти виноцветные поля завтра? поэтому Зукерберг и торопится сегодня — изменяет сеть, запускает все больше развлечений… крадет ваше время? точнее, покупает задешево.
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[1] — удивительно, однако, читать данные комментарии не где-нибудь, но в другой социальной сети.
любой социальный круг в той или иной мере предполагает свою субкультуру :).