во всей вселенной пахнет нефтью

09:50 | 26-11-2013 | Culturology, Economics | 1 Comment

из интервью Марка Эндриссена:

SERWER: But people love their cars. They have their stuff in their cars, the car seats for their baby, their Frisbees, their golf clubs—it’s their second home. People aren’t going to give that up, are they?

ANDREESSEN: Ask a kid. Take teenagers 20 years ago and ask them would they rather have a car or a computer? And the answer would have been 100% of the time they’d rather have a car, because a car represents freedom, right?

Today, ask kids if they’d rather have a smartphone or a car if they had to pick and 100% would say smartphones. Because smartphones represent freedom. There’s a huge social behavior reorientation that’s already happening. And you can see it through that. And I’m not saying nobody can own cars. If people want to own cars, they can own cars. But there is a new generation coming where freedom is defined by “I can do anything I want, whenever I want. If I want a ride, I get a ride, but I don’t have to worry. I don’t have to make car payments. I don’t have to worry about insurance. I have complete flexibility.” That is freedom too.

ну да. и последствия этой трансформации отчетливее всего чувствует рынок топлива, к слову сказать:

The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through September. Travel on all roads and streets changed by 1.5% (3.7 billion vehicle miles) for September 2013 as compared with September 2012. Travel for the month is estimated to be 241.7 billion vehicle miles. Cumulative Travel for 2013 changed by 0.4% (9.8 billion vehicle miles). Cumulative estimate for the year is 2233.9 billion vehicle miles of travel (PDF report). Both the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) and total population-adjusted data are fractionally above the post-financial crisis lows set in June.

появление мобильных рабочих мест избавило нас от необходимости ежедневно накручивать километры на четыре колеса. и это и есть свобода, о которой выше. да и не только работа, конечно же:

A couple of recent academic papers by Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle of the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute shed light on some social megatrends shaping our transportation habits. The authors note that over the past 25 years, “there was a substantial reduction in the percentage of young people who have a driver’s licence.” Their data show that in 2008, only 31 per cent of 16-year-olds had a driver’s licence compared to 46 per cent in 1983[1].


With social media applications like Facebook, Skype, and Twitter – as well as physically-immobilizing, multiplayer online video games – it’s easier to make the connection that Internet use has something to do with the lower propensity of youth to get a drivers’ license, the researchers state. Mr. Sivak and Mr. Schoettle conclude that all that virtual contact “reduces the need for actual contact among young people.”

A reduction in the need for contact means less need for driving – ergo, less need for oil. Virtual contact through the Internet, whether it’s applied in business or pleasure, is a partial substitute for driving and flying. Here’s the megatrend: At the margin of consumption, the Internet is virtualizing barrels of oil in the same way that other physical media, such as CDs, DVDs and newspapers, are being displaced by networked bits and bytes.

замечательнейшие тенденции (в том числе, кстати, и тренды в рыночной капитализации тоже очень показательны).


  1. так же:

    25 years ago young people between the ages of 21-34 used to buy 38% of all the new vehicles sold in the US. This has changed dramatically since then and now these young people only buy 27% of the new cars sold. Interestingly the share of American 19-year-olds without a driver licence has increased from 12.7% in 1983 to more than 30% in 2010.



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