on adaptation
18:23 | 02-11-2014 | Economics | No Comments
и еще немного: в то время, как разработчики месторождений сланцевой нефти ждут будушего роста цен (Китай, потребность в топливе — кхм… — нет альтернативы, вот это все), стоимость разработки тоже, в общем-то, падает:
However, their costs have already fallen sharply, and could fall further. The median North American shale development needs a US crude price of $57 a barrel to break even today, compared with $70 a barrel in the summer of last year, according to IHS, the research company.
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Accenture, the consultancy, believes the average cost of a US shale well could be cut by up to 40 per cent by better management of factors such as planning, logistics, and relationships with suppliers[1].
но вот и другая сторона все той же медали:
Downward pressure on costs will heighten if the oil price continues to fall. Drilling rigs and other equipment such as pumps for fracking tend not to be tied up on long-term contracts, meaning that producers can adjust their spending quickly in response to oil price movements.
In a deepening slump, the service companies providing services such as drilling and hydraulic fracturing are likely to come off worst, according to Steve Wood of Moody’s, the rating agency.
узнаете своих? впрочем, что-то такое мы уже проходили:
There could be a parallel for US oil in shale gas production. When prices fell to a 10-year low in 2012, it seemed that most US shale production would be uneconomic and output would collapse.
As it turned out, production did fall in higher-cost areas such as the Haynesville shale of Louisiana and Texas, but it continued to rise in the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania.
The best companies were able to produce at costs that were much lower than many people had expected. Cabot Oil and Gas, for example, says it has a cash cost in the Marcellus of just 75 cents per thousand cubic feet, compared with a benchmark US gas price of about $3.70
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well… совершенству логистики и планирования, ясное дело, нет предела, но цифры все же смотрятся чересчур энергично, на мой взгляд. ↩